Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
November 28, 2011 16 Comments
If I’ve learnt anything as a Rangers fan, it’s that you shouldn’t believe everything you hear in the media and statistics are there to be manipulated in whatever way the person who shouts loudest wishes them to be.
That’s why I thought it might be an idea to properly examine the recent Scottish Government stats on sectarian crime. Released with exemplary timing, to coincide with the amendments stage of the Offensive Behaviour at Football Bill, they have been widely reported by our media as evidence that sectarianism in Scotland is a huge problem which requires this draconian bill. Is that really the case?
If you wish to check these stats for yourself, (and I hope after you read this you might want to) then you can do so here: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/17154035/7
The first thing that struck me when reading the figures was that, despite the sensationalist headlines, it didn’t seem that a great number of offences had taken place. I know it isn’t the done thing to make light of any crime - and I’m not excusing the ones that were carried out – however the question is whether the response to sectarianism is merited by the scale of the problem. 693 charges in a year may seem significant but compare that with the last recorded figures for racist incidents in a year, 6,452, and you may start to see what I mean. (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/14105100/23). There were also 448 charges last year aggravated by reason of sexual orientation. Perhaps the cut-off figure for moral outrage is 500 charges?
In a statement that you feel might have been prepared before the figures were even released, Bishop Tartaglia, the President of the Communications Commission of the Bishops Conference of Scotland (yikes!), stated these figures were “an indicator of entrenched hostility” towards Catholics in Scotland. Well if that is the case then I would hate to be a Pakistani in Scotland as there is a great deal more evidence of “entrenched hostility” towards that group and I don’t see any new laws being brought in to deal with it.
Another aspect not adequately presented in the media was the breakdown of figures contained in the report. Firstly, of the 693 charges only 587 actually went to court: And off those 587 cases only 390 have resulted in convictions. It seems, when penning their headlines, some members of the media failed to take into account the principle of innocent until proven guilty. Why charges in which no crime was proven to be committed are included in the report is something you would need to ask the authors. I presume it can’t just be because they wanted to bump up the figures a bit?
Let’s also have a look at who the targets of this not-so-rampant sectarianism were. Well it turns out to be mainly the police. Seem like an unlikely target don’t they? Especially when you consider that there is virtually no way in which someone being ‘sectarian’ to a police officer can possibly know their actual religion. Also, as far as I am aware, the police in Scotland are not affiliated with any particular religious group in the same way as say, a football club might be. The police accounted for 41.5% of the charges. In second place in the league of receiving sectarian abuse comes a rather vague group – ”the community”. This, when you read the report, seems to be a euphemism for “nobody in particular”. It covers people wandering down the street singing songs shouting at “nobody in particular”. This accounts for 33% of the charges. The remainder of the charges were on members of the public (22.6%) and workers (10.5%).
Once you look at the groups ‘targeted’ above it won’t surprise you that 72.5% of the charges were only for Breach of the Peace. Only 39 assault charges were recorded – there is no data in the report on how many of them actually lead to convictions. The severity is also not mentioned so we are left to guess. Of all the convictions, only 70 resulted in custodial sentences. The vast majority resulted in fines. This is not a crime wave sweeping our country.
The notes in the report also give an insight into the background to the figures. Firstly, the police reports have been interpreted by the writers of the report. This is a research project. Police reports have been examined and certain observations made, leading to a conclusion that one or other religious group was targeted. There are large gaps in the information including any data on the offender’s religion. I would argue that it is perfectly possible for two people of the same religion to be involved in an incident in which so called ‘sectarian’ language is used. Indeed I have witnessed such drink-fuelled incidents myself. Such an incident is not genuinely sectarian but a ridiculous stramash. It would be included in these figures.
Perhaps the most important statistic in relation to football and this proposed bill is that only 12.9% of these reported charges took place at football matches. So why then, Mr Salmond, do we have a bill which specifically targets football fans? Even if there was a sectarian issue in this country it certainly hasn’t been taking place predominantly at football.
I urge people to read the report. Does it really paint a picture of a deeply sectarian country? A place where Catholics, or indeed Protestants, fear to walk the streets? Where people are discriminated against because of religion? If Scotland is a sectarian country then it also is a hugely racist and deeply homophobic country. In fact it is approximately ten times more racist than it is sectarian. Have you heard any politicians on the TV or radio telling us what a racist country we live in? Have there been gay rights groups on the front page of the ‘papers telling us it isn’t safe for gay people in Scotland? That they are victims of “entrenched hostility”?
The term ‘Scotland’s Shame’ is bandied about a lot these days in relation to sectarianism. Rangers fans are not ‘Scotland’s Shame’. Even Celtic fans, despite their worsening behaviour and many people rightly taking issue with their songs glorifying terrorism, are not worthy of the tag. ‘Scotland’s Shame’ is that we have elected people into power who are happy to ignore society’s real problems for an easy headline. These politicians (and I include almost all of them, not just the SNP) are more interested in petty political point scoring than they are in solving real problems. Labour MSP’s seem to only object to the proposed bill on the grounds that they didn’t get to be the party to enact it. They all seem to agree that sectarianism is a massive problem despite there being little evidence to back this up. They herald these figures as if they proved their point when in fact they do quite the opposite.
The simple fact is that dwindling interest in religion and the growing number of interests whose future depends on a ‘sectarian problem’ are combining to create a situation where perpetuating this myth becomes a matter of priority. Politicians are happy to jump on any bandwagon that gets them some publicity. This week the Scottish Government announced an extra £9m to fund anti-sectarian initiatives. Ask yourself how much incentive there is for the groups receiving this money to actually admit the problem has been all but solved by the simple passage of time and natural changes in Scottish society.
About Chris Graham
Excellent Chris.
top man keep up this great work im spreading the word
The sort of article that should be in the Scottish press and media. Of course they have their own agendas don’t they? Well done Chris.
Fantastic bit of work Chris.
If only some of the journo’s and politicians would get off their fat lazy arses and do a bit of digging as you have done. But, we all know a report such as yours just doesn’t suit their agenda.
The difference in racial and sectarian figures is utterly shocking. Your right, its obviously all about the easy headline for too many.
The simple fact is that dwindling interest in religion and the growing number of interests whose future depends on a ‘sectarian problem’ are combining to create a situation where perpetuating this myth becomes a matter of priority. Politicians are happy to jump on any bandwagon that gets them some publicity. This week the Scottish Government announced an extra £9m to fund anti-sectarian initiatives. Ask yourself how much incentive there is for the groups receiving this money to actually admit the problem has been all but solved by the simple passage of time and natural changes in Scottish society.
Well said!
The main factor I would input is Capitalism’s ‘divide and rule’. As the crisis in world economics continues there is a realism among the ruling class that they may need to address future problems by dividing the opposition.
The main religion in Britain is the Protestant one and it’s hard to imagine them being put on trains to concentration camps so where will they find this sizeable minority (like the Fascists in Germany did) to channel hatred?
On the other hand by continually making Rangers fans out as right wing nut jobs, we are being set up as an outlet for everyone’s discontent… It is there I feel these ‘interested parties’ are pushing hardest, because they understand how Capitalism works – the economic crisis will come and go but these people will have enhanced their power!
Thing is though, that power has got to a level where Capitalism will be concerned – there will be a limit to how much they will concede to the RC Church…
When you see those old pictures of the Catholic leaders next to the Third Reich and look at the smile on Hitler’s face you just know what the evil bastard is thinking!
Pawns in a game, not victims of chance, to quote Sting.
The question of what proportion of those who are the victims of ‘sectarian’ assault are Roman Catholics or are Protestants is not crucially important. More significant are the questions: what proportion of Roman Catholics, what proportion of Protestants and what proportion of citizens are the victim of ‘sectarian assaults?’. Most, perhaps even all, Popes have been Roman Catholics. However, of all Roman Catholics, very, very few have been Popes. It is very likely to the case that the chances of any particular Roman Catholic being the next Pope are so remote that the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland is as likely to be the next Pope as is the average Roman Catholic in Scotland.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/hugh_mclachlan_it_s_hard_to_recognise_the_faces_of_hatred_1_1531700
This piece in The Scotsman is worth reading.
For instance, there was a sectarian impulse behind the traditional and characteristically Scottish policy of mass literacy and universal education. The proponents of the Reformation in Scotland wanted to have a school in every parish and an English translation of the Bible in every church so that everyone could work out his or her own salvation before God for him or herself. This manifestation of sectarianism hardly seems to be something of which we should be ashamed or something to which the state should have been opposed.
Never bought this paper before and don’t have the time now to give this article the time it deserves – will do later.
In a sense (I think) what he’s saying comes down to the thinking behind the film ‘Brimstone and Treacle’ in that good can come from what may be (currently) bad thinking…. The Bible is regarded as one of the most important books in history (maybe even THE most important…) and even an athiest like myself understands the reasons behind that.
Fantastic buddy
If only the Scottish media were as diligent as you Chris, Well done!
Yet another superb piece of work Chris.
As we all know, politicians can be slippery characters. My fear is that a politician reading your article would try to argue that the lack of convictions is evidence that new, more specific legislation is required.
It sems to me that the Police are a driving force behind this bill and too often, they are being allowed to dictate which laws should be formulated instead of doing the job they are paid to do – enforce the laws already in place.
So-called anti-sectarian charities also have a vested interest but your article tears a lot of the myths perpetrated by all these parties to shreds.
Outstanding mate. Keep it coming.
blogged at
http://f2cscotland.blogspot.com/2011/11/number-crunching-and-sectarian-offences.html
Politics has a long tradition of sexing-up documents, it wasn’t invented with Alistair Campbell. I am a Rangers supporter, and a Labour voter, who has written to, my MP and MSP, telling him in no uncertain terms that I don’t appreciate being told I am a bigot, who lives in a sectarian country, and is part of a sectarian society. I AM NOT, I DO NOT, AND AM NOT AGAIN.
However, the only way for the politicians to sit up, is if Rangers supporters groups, target areas to stand at the next general election – then they might just listen.
Of course, the candidates would have to be vetted before being allowed to stand, and it’s policies on politics would be seperate from it’s mandate to give the club a voice in Hollyrood. If the poiticians wont back down, and GET REAL, then this course of action may have to be implemented.
Celtic have a political lobby in Hollyrood, and have had much the same at Westminster, as well, for many years now. It is only natural that we should take the bull by the horns, and ensure we have a visible presence, and are represented by ourselves; and not the silent, opportunistic supporters, who already exist in Parliament. Perhaps it is vital we take this action, when we have religious agents, setting up an extremist political cult, within the grounds of a rival football club – I think we know who we are all talking about.
But before we resort to such tactics, it would be a worthwhile exorcise telling our local MP/MSPs how fed up we are with their tactics.
We are the silent majority in this parish, and it’s time we let ourselves be heard.
“Labour MSP’s seem to only object to the proposed bill on the grounds that they didn’t get to be the party to enact it”……………….No they didn’t. They objected to the Bill cos it’s a shambles from front to back cover.
Sorry I disagree. I have not heard a single Labour MSP say that they oppose the bill on the grounds that there is not a large problem with sectarianism in this country. They disagree (quite rightly) with the content of the bill but they still take every opportunity they can to grandstand on the terrible sectarian problem that none of them have been able to show actually exists.
To be fair, the only report I heard in the media on this was – astonishingly – Reevel Alderson on BBC Radio Scotland, pointing out that the figures were highly ambiguous, could be interpreted any number of ways and highlighting the proportion of attacks on police officers.
well done chris ,good stuff mate